Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 872

   Mesoscale Discussion 0872
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246...

   Valid 270721Z - 270915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Embedded strong to severe gusts remain possible with an
   eastward-moving MCS. A downstream watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KHGX indicates an MCS
   tracking eastward across southeast TX at around 30-35 kt. Given the
   well-established cold pool, around 40 kt 0-6 km shear (per VWP
   data), and moist inflow (lower 70s dewpoints) for this system,
   strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) will remain possible as
   it continues eastward over the next couple hours. However, given the
   orientation of the midlevel trough and accompanying midlevel flow,
   weakening upper-level support and increasingly line-parallel
   deep-layer shear should tend to limit convective intensity with
   eastward extent -- especially given the lack of a stronger low-level
   mass response. Therefore, a downstream watch is not expected.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   28959582 29379587 29989568 30579578 30969605 31219582
               31279527 31099476 30619439 29859430 29599439 29009507
               28849557 28959582 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH