Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 872

   Mesoscale Discussion 0872
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of North Texas into southeast Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211745Z - 211915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated storms will have some potential to intensify and
   produce large hail. Uncertainty in these storms being maintained
   make watch issuance fairly uncertain. Convective trends will be
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated storms have developed in North Texas. These
   storms are not captured by any CAMs. Based on the 12Z OUN/DFW
   soundings, this activity is most likely rooted somewhere between
   800-700 mb--driven by very modest influence from the approaching
   shortwave trough in the southern High Plains as well as weak 850 mb
   warm advection. The primary uncertainty is how long this activity
   will last as the low-level jet is expected to weaken into the
   afternoon. Should these storms intensify, the very steep lapse
   rates, strong elevated buoyancy, and effective shear of 55-60 kts
   will support supercell structures capable of large hail (1-2
   inches). Boundary-layer destabilization still appears it will
   another few hours. With this activity moving quickly northeast, it
   is quite uncertain if storms could root near/at the surface.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32759772 32819785 32999788 33549772 34069762 34479735
               34679706 35079581 35079495 34749481 34069527 33439652
               32759748 32759772