Mesoscale Discussion 0870 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026 Areas affected...portions of south-central Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245... Valid 270317Z - 270445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts (and potentially a significant gust or two), isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two continues across WW245. DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCS remains ongoing across portions of south-central Texas as of 0300 UTC, with several reports of severe/damaging wind gusts noted over the past 1-2 hours, including measured 63 and 79 mph wind gusts. Brief embedded circulations have also been observed via latest EWX radar imagery in the San Antonio metro vicinity within the past 15-30 minutes. The downstream environment remains moderately unstable, with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Coupled with effective shear of 30-35 kts, continued maintenance of this system and potential for severe wind gusts (and potentially a significant gust or two) appears likely for at least another 1-2 hours. The EWX VAD also sampled approximately 100 m2/s2 0-500 m SRH just ahead of the convective line, which will promote the potential for a brief embedded tornado or two. Latest high-res guidance continues to suggest that a cluster of weak thunderstorms currently noted in Coahuila, Mexico, will evolve eastward and potentially intensify over the next few hours, before advancing into South Texas, perhaps as another cluster/linear MCS. This would bring additional potential for severe wind gusts, isolated large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado or two to portions of WW245. ..Chalmers.. 05/27/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29269861 29429872 29689885 29799870 29889814 29869746 29669696 29329674 28919676 28469691 27939752 27829827 27869909 28089927 28349917 28689880 28969860 29119855 29269861 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Source link