Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 866

   Mesoscale Discussion 0866
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0408 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...

   Valid 210908Z - 211115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues across the southeastern
   quarter of Nebraska.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue across a sizable portion of
   southeastern Nebraska at this time, with the strongest convection in
   a roughly north-south band crossing the Howard/Hall/Kearney/Franklin
   County vicinity.  This convection is ongoing either side of the
   primary surface baroclinic zone, near the nose of a 60-kt
   south-southwesterly low-level jet.

   Downstream from this eastward-moving band of storms, around 1500
   J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is indicated by RAP-based objective analysis
   on the warm side of the front.  This -- along with lift provided by
   the surface front and aforementioned low-level jet -- should allow
   storms to persist over the next couple of hours, with a couple of
   wind gusts to near severe levels still possible, along with marginal
   hail.

   ..Goss.. 05/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   39909896 40599885 41449792 42059632 41079567 40409581
               39909896