Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 864

   Mesoscale Discussion 0864
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0129 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

   Areas affected...southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 273...

   Valid 210629Z - 210730Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 273 continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of intense storms continues moving eastward
   across southwestern Nebraska and adjacent northwestern Kansas. 
   All-hazards severe risk is evident.

   DISCUSSION...A well-organized, broadly rotating storm is currently
   observed crossing the Hayes/Hitchcock County vicinity in Nebraska,
   with trailing storms extending southwestward to Cheyenne County
   Kansas.  The storms are ongoing just north of the conglomerate
   surface front/outflow lying west-southwest to east-northeast across
   northwestern Kansas and into central and southeastern Nebraska.  As
   such, this region is on the northern gradient of surface-based
   instability, and thus capable of producing all-hazards severe
   weather -- given favorably strong/sheared background flow.  This
   convection should maintain intensity as it shifts eastward toward --
   and eventually into -- WW 274, aided by the observed 60-kt low-level
   jet.

   ..Goss.. 05/21/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39610212 39900210 40190168 40390153 40600017 39910002
               39700047 39610212