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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 861

Mesoscale Discussion 861
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0861
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1001 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

   Areas of southeastern Nebraska and southwestern

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271...

   Valid 210301Z - 210500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 271

   SUMMARY...Stronger storms capable of producing severe hail and wind
   are becoming more widely scattered to isolated and likely to
   diminish further through around Midnight CDT.  It is not clear that
   a new severe weather watch will be needed thereafter, until much
   later tonight.

   DISCUSSION...Based on the Rapid Refresh, and convective trends,
   warming in the 700-500 mb layer nosing across the Kansas border into
   south central and southeastern Nebraska has become increasingly
   inhibitive to convection, to the south and west of lingering strong
   storms now northwest of Lincoln and west/north of Omaha.  Coupled
   with continued boundary-layer cooling during the next few hours,
   generally weakening thunderstorm intensities with diminishing risk
   for severe hail and wind are anticipated through the 04-06Z time
   frame.  However, upscale growing convection currently still
   organizing across parts of northeastern Colorado could be
   accompanied by increasing severe weather potential into the region
   later tonight (after 4 AM CDT).

   ..Kerr.. 05/21/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41829647 41789482 41509449 40979502 40859567 40819602
               40829672 40839745 41829647 

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