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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 857

Mesoscale Discussion 857
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0857
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0649 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

   Areas affected...Central Michigan and far northern Indiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268...

   Valid 202349Z - 210115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 268

   SUMMARY...A bowing line segment or two capable of producing severe
   wind gusts near 60-70 mph remains possible across central MI.
   Further south into Lower MI, a few thunderstorms could produce
   marginally severe hail around 0.75 to 1.25" in diameter.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms associated with an MCV
   moving east across central MI and northern IN is expected to
   maintain localized intensity through this evening. Although buoyancy
   across central MI is fairly limited and convective inhibition will
   continue to increase through nightfall, easterly surface flow
   downstream should continue to support a relatively balanced
   convergence zone. In addition, low-level shear vectors orthogonal to
   the line and magnitudes east of the MCV's center point may be
   favorable for a mesovortex or two. However, LCLs downstream of the
   line become increasingly unfavorable for tornadogenesis.

   ..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/20/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   43638557 44158539 44128496 44168434 43818408 43408416
               43288411 42738431 42548436 42168465 42158619 42558595

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