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| Mesoscale Discussion 856 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0856
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Areas affected...parts of south central and southeastern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 202306Z - 210100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development is initiating
across the region and probably will persist into mid/late evening.
A few supercells are possible, primarily posing a risk for large
hail.
DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is underway where
boundary-layer destabilization has become maximized in a corridor
from near the Hastings/Kearney vicinity into the Greater Omaha area.
This is in advance of a slowly southeastward advancing cold front,
where lower/mid-tropospheric warming across much of the central
Great Plains may be offsetting weakening of inhibition associated
with insolation. Still, roughly to the north of the Kansas/Nebraska
border, temperatures in the 700-500 mb layer remain cooler relative
to areas to south, and it appears inhibition is weak enough to allow
for intensifying thunderstorm development during the next few hours.
Mid/upper support for upward vertical motion remains uncertain, but
strong southwesterly flow in mid/upper levels is contributing to
sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell development. With
mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates, stronger storms may pose an initial risk for severe
hail.
Although boundary-layer cooling will contribute to increasing
inhibition into and after sunset, modest strengthening of southerly
850 mb flow and associated warm advection may maintain stronger
cells into mid/late evening.
..Kerr.. 05/20/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40829950 41519778 41609607 40759563 40129661 39959878
40219958 40829950
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