Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 853

   Mesoscale Discussion 0853
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0321 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

   Areas affected...Western/central lower MI into northern
   IN...southern Lake Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...

   Valid 202021Z - 202215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be
   possible as storms spread eastward late this afternoon into the
   early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Occasionally organized convection is ongoing from
   Chicagoland into southern lower MI, in association with an MCV
   moving across WI/northern IL. Downstream moisture/instability across
   lower MI remains somewhat limited, though continued heating may
   eventually support MLCAPE of near 1000 J/kg. Somewhat enhanced
   low/midlevel flow attendant to the MCV will support potential for
   modestly organized storms to spread eastward across the lake into
   lower MI late this afternoon into early evening. 

   A nearly stationary front is draped across southern lower MI.
   Relatively clear skies are supporting diurnal heating on both sides
   of the front, though temperatures are notably warmer (well into the
   80s F) to the south of the boundary. Some threat for locally
   damaging wind may accompany storms as they move into the region,
   especially near/south of the boundary where stronger heating/mixing
   has occurred this afternoon. Stronger embedded cells could also pose
   at least a transient hail threat.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 05/20/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41418718 41768778 42858772 43868720 44228658 44408616
               44388455 44218415 42728445 41978524 41648564 41518620
               41468639 41418718