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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 852

Mesoscale Discussion 852
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0852
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

   Areas affected...South Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201904Z - 202100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and damaging winds are possible
   with isolated strong/severe storms this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus have become more vertically developed along a
   remnant surface boundary north of Lake Okeechobee. Other cumulus
   agitation is occurring in south-central Florida where outflow from
   convection in the Florida Keys/Straits has enhanced convergence.
   Storm initiation is most likely along the sea/lake breeze boundaries
   as well as the northward moving outflow and seems possible within
   the next 1-2 hours. Storm coverage should remain isolated given weak
   forcing aloft. Storm intensity should also be muted compared to
   yesterday given warmer mid-level temperatures (around -8 C per 12Z
   observed MFL sounding). Isolated marginally severe hail and damaging
   winds are the primary hazards with the strongest storms this

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/20/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   27057975 26407974 25567991 25638030 25768077 26028108
               26398132 27138122 27348114 27488113 27728103 27728075
               27598036 27568008 27257979 27057975 

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