Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 85

   Mesoscale Discussion 0085
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1012 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle/Big Bend into southwest
   GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 8...

   Valid 151612Z - 151745Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some increase in the damaging-wind and localized tornado
   threat is expected into early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS has intensified somewhat this morning
   over the FL Panhandle and adjacent coastal waters, with deeper
   updrafts and an increase in lightning activity noted over the last
   2-3 hours. This QLCS will continue to move eastward into early
   afternoon, in advance of a deep-layer cyclone moving across
   central/northern MS/AL. 

   While the primary cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken through
   the day, low-level and deep-layer shear are expected to remain
   strong across the warm sector into this afternoon. Inland buoyancy
   is currently weak (with MLCAPE of near/below 500 J/kg), but some
   additional destabilization is expected with time from the FL
   Panhandle/Big Bend into southwest GA, due to filtered heating and
   continued low-level moisture transport. The strong flow and
   effective SRH of 200-400 m2/s2 will continue to support potential
   for persistent bowing segments and embedded mesovortices, with an
   attendant threat of strong/damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes.

   ..Dean.. 02/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30158523 30888473 31388437 31758394 31688332 31448313
               30768313 29718336 29688421 29378505 29578541 30158523 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH