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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 849

Mesoscale Discussion 849
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0849
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

   Areas affected...northeastern and east-central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 266...

   Valid 200843Z - 201015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 266

   SUMMARY...Locally strong/damaging gusts will likely continue over
   the next 1 to 2 hours, though a gradual decrease in convective
   intensity is anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of convection across
   roughly the northeastern quarter of Oklahoma -- most intense along
   its southern flank.  As the individual storms move in a generally
   easterly direction at around 35 kt, the overall area of storms
   continues to sag gradually southeastward -- north of
   southward-moving outflow.

   With the convection slightly elevated for the most part atop the
   aforementioned outflow, severe-caliber wind gusts have become
   sparse, with the last reported about around 3 AM at Tulsa (51 kt). 
   In general, a slow decreasing trend in convective intensity (and
   thus severe potential) should continue over the next couple of
   hours, as storms encounter a progressive/gradual decrease in
   surface-based instability both areally and temporally.  Still, an
   occasional stronger gust or two -- near severe levels -- will remain
   possible in the short term.

   ..Goss.. 05/20/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35699739 36309717 36089689 36109625 36429577 36609534
               36239462 35809456 35379508 35129615 35699739 

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