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Mesoscale Discussion 847 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0847 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...parts of western into central Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262... Valid 200338Z - 200545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262 continues. SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms may slowly begin to weaken, but probably will continue to pose a risk for strong to severe gusts across parts of the Kansas City metro and Missouri Lake of the Ozarks, into the Columbia and Jefferson City vicinities, through Midnight-1 AM CDT. It is not certain that a new severe weather watch will be needed, but WW 262 could be locally extended into parts of central Missouri. DISCUSSION...A couple of lower/mid-tropospheric vortices have consolidated into one larger mesoscale convective circulation now passing near/south of the Topeka KS vicinity. This feature remains well-defined, with a strong convectively generated surface cold pool (including 6-8 mb 2 hourly rises at 03Z) advancing across the Emporia and Chanute vicinities of east-central/southeastern Kansas. This feature may have reached peak intensity, but the apex of the evolving bow echo in radar reflectivities (and associated surface gust front) is still advancing eastward around 45-50 kt. At this continued motion, it would spread across the Missouri Lake of the Ozarks area into Columbia and Jefferson City vicinities through 05-06Z. As it does, less unstable easterly low-level inflow may begin to weaken convection, but the risk for strong to severe gusts may be a bit slower to diminish. ..Kerr.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...ICT... LAT...LON 38999474 39219374 38749251 37939288 37339415 37239543 38139463 38999474 |
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