Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 846

   Mesoscale Discussion 0846
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0928 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

   Areas affected...parts of south central Kansas  and north central
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...

   Valid 200228Z - 200430Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development becoming focused
   near the central into eastern Kansas/Oklahoma state border vicinity
   may pose an increasing risk for severe hail and wind into the
   overnight hours.  Trends are being monitored for an additional
   severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...To the east of a surface low over the Texas/Oklahoma
   Panhandle vicinity, area VWP data confirm southerly low-level jet
   strengthening to 50+ kt is ongoing across northwest Texas toward the
   Medicine Lodge KS vicinity.  An increase in new thunderstorm
   development is underway near the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity to
   the south of Medicine Lodge, in response to strengthening
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection and lift of seasonably moist
   air characterized by CAPE up to around 3000 J/kg.  

   As warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air
   continues to advect northeastward across Oklahoma, it appears that
   an increasingly better-defined mid-level baroclinic zone (roughly
   around 700 mb) near the central into eastern Kansas/Oklahoma state
   border vicinity will become the focus for stronger convection into
   the 05-07Z time frame.  This could include another upscale growing
   and organizing convective cluster, in the presence of seasonably
   strong shear.

   ..Kerr.. 05/20/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37389894 37459798 37269537 36049548 35879764 36289899
               36849964 37389894