Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 842

   Mesoscale Discussion 0842
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northeastern new Mexico into the
   Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232039Z - 232245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to
   pose a risk for hail and some damaging winds into this evening. A WW
   is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Across portions of the southern High Plains, afternoon
   satellite and radar imagery showed high-based convection
   strengthening across the southern Raton mesa in northeastern NM and
   southeastern CO. South of a broad upper trough and modestly enhanced
   westerly flow aloft, weak upslope flow has resulted in modest
   destabilization of the air mass so far this afternoon. Continued
   warming will support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE amid steep low and
   mid-level lapse rates (18z AMA sounding). 20-30 kt of deep-layer
   flow on area VADs is supportive of a mixed mode of multicellular and
   transient supercell structures.

   Ongoing storms over NM/CO should continue east/southeastward with
   gradual intensification as they encounter more buoyancy. Additional,
   more isolated, storm development is possible along a subtle sfc
   confluence axis across the central TX Panhandle. CAM guidance and
   observational trends shows these storms intensifying, with an
   associated increase in the severe risk through the remainder of the
   afternoon and into the early evening.

   Isolated large hail is possible initially, especially with any
   longer-lived supercells. Some potential for severe wind gusts is
   also possible given the steep low-level lapse rates. This threat
   could increase further as a gradual clustering is expected during
   the evening hours across southern portions of the TX Panhandle where
   buoyancy is greater. With severe potential expected to increase, a
   WW is possible over the next couple of hours.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33660275 34120314 34790350 35490357 36000356 36380333
               36880256 36700107 35890050 35330019 34250025 33620060
               33360094 33300216 33660275 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN