Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 842

   Mesoscale Discussion 0842
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0700 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

   Areas affected...south central/southeastern Kansas and north
   central/northeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...262...

   Valid 200000Z - 200230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260, 262
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Organizing convective clusters accompanied by potentially
   strong, damaging wind gusts may increasingly impact areas east of
   the Interstate 35 corridor of southeastern Kansas and northeastern
   Oklahoma after 10 PM.  Trends are being monitored for an additional
   severe weather watch across northeastern Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...Convective evolution into late evening remains somewhat
   unclear.  As a low amplitude mid-level short wave progresses across
   central Kansas toward the lower Missouri Valley, mid-level warming
   is forecast across much of Oklahoma.  Coupled with the onset of
   boundary-layer cooling, this will contribute to increasing
   inhibition, with the nose of a strengthening southerly low-level jet
    (50+ kt around 850 mb) becoming focused over southwestern/south
   central Kansas near Medicine Loge.  

   However, a corridor of higher moisture content air remains focused
   east of the dryline through areas near/just east of the Interstate
   35 corridor.  Supported by inflow of this air, with CAPE up to
   around 3000 J/kg, ongoing convection may continue to grow upscale
   and organize further during the next few hours, and potentially
   begin to impact portions of southeastern Kansas/northeastern
   Oklahoma as early as 03-05Z.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/20/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   38399682 37879553 37079548 36369593 35539719 35769820
               36219846 36879823 37409819 38189801 38399682