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Mesoscale Discussion 841 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0841 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Central to western SD into the NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259... Valid 192340Z - 200115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259 continues. SUMMARY...Primary severe threat exists within the South Dakota portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259. This activity should spread into parts of north-central South Dakota, where an additional small watch or local extension may occur. Overall severe threat appears to have diminished in the Nebraska portion of the watch. DISCUSSION...While thunderstorms have subsided over the NE portion of WW 259, several individual cells appear to be growing upscale into a small MCS from western into central SD. Short-term CAM guidance suggests an MCV should emanate out of this process and yield strong to locally severe storms persisting somewhat east of the watch and beyond the 02Z scheduled expiration. Large hail from 1-1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 55-70 mph will remain the primary hazards. After dusk, a fairly pronounced gradient in MLCAPE between central to eastern SD, in conjunction with increasing nocturnal MLCIN, should result in the severe threat becoming more isolated/marginal during the late evening over eastern SD. ..Grams.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 46060075 46079951 45899852 45079831 44569843 44029963 42900083 42560194 42880244 44720156 45940114 46060075 |
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