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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 841

Mesoscale Discussion 841
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0841
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

   Areas affected...Central to western SD into the NE Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

   Valid 192340Z - 200115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259

   SUMMARY...Primary severe threat exists within the South Dakota
   portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259. This activity should
   spread into parts of north-central South Dakota, where an additional
   small watch or local extension may occur. Overall severe threat
   appears to have diminished in the Nebraska portion of the watch.

   DISCUSSION...While thunderstorms have subsided over the NE portion
   of WW 259, several individual cells appear to be growing upscale
   into a small MCS from western into central SD. Short-term CAM
   guidance suggests an MCV should emanate out of this process and
   yield strong to locally severe storms persisting somewhat east of
   the watch and beyond the 02Z scheduled expiration. Large hail from
   1-1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts of 55-70 mph will remain the
   primary hazards. After dusk, a fairly pronounced gradient in MLCAPE
   between central to eastern SD, in conjunction with increasing
   nocturnal MLCIN, should result in the severe threat becoming more
   isolated/marginal during the late evening over eastern SD.

   ..Grams.. 05/19/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   46060075 46079951 45899852 45079831 44569843 44029963
               42900083 42560194 42880244 44720156 45940114 46060075 

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