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Mesoscale Discussion 840 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0840 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Eastern KS...far southeast NE...western MO...southwest IA Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 192255Z - 200030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A developing MCS over central Kansas is expected to accelerate east-northeastward later this evening towards parts of the Mid to Lower Missouri Valley. Damaging winds from 70-90 mph will be the primary threat, most likely across eastern Kansas. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...As alluded to in MCD 0839, increasingly widespread severe wind gusts are expected as multiple intense thunderstorm clusters over north-central to southwest KS consolidate by mid-evening. The leading cluster across north-central KS should spread into northeast KS initially, with additional low-level warm-advection-driven storms possible farther northeast across the Mid-MO Valley. Surface dew points are generally in the mid 50s to low 60s across northeast KS and southeast NE currently and this may mitigate eastward intensification in the near-term. But a plume of higher surface dew points exists both to the south, emanating north from OK, and farther east into central/northern MO. Eventual cluster consolidation will probably yield eastward acceleration later this evening with embedded bows spreading across at least eastern KS. A plume of substantial MLCIN that will increase after dusk across eastern OK and southeast KS, may result in the more prominent severe wind threat arcing east-northeastward in time. ..Grams/Smith.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39859658 40619637 41179558 41169463 40899345 40459313 38249378 37019512 37069656 38219623 39299628 39859658 |
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