Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 838

   Mesoscale Discussion 0838
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0453 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Florida

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258...

   Valid 192153Z - 200000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds continues
   across parts of the southeast Florida coast.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and surface observations
   continue to show deep convection developing along and behind a
   southward-surging outflow boundary along the southeast FL coast.
   While most storms have struggled to intensify due to the
   undercutting nature of the boundary, a few deeper cells have managed
   to mature within an otherwise favorable supercell environment. A
   sea-breeze boundary remains evident along the southeastern FL coast
   ahead of the outflow boundary, and while deeper convective
   initiation has occurred within the past hour, strengthening
   low-level westerly winds has shifted the boundary closer to the
   coast, resulting in quick storm propagation offshore. The general
   expectation over the next 1-2 hours is for a continuation of
   scattered thunderstorms along the southeast FL coast with a few
   strong to severe cells capable of large hail and damaging winds.
   This threat will gradually abate through the evening hours amid the
   onset of nocturnal cooling and a continued southward surge of the
   undercutting outflow boundary.

   ..Moore.. 05/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...

   LAT...LON   26888070 26938060 26938008 26848003 26588002 26418005
               26238008 26098010 25938010 25768011 25688014 25648024
               25628031 25708045 25798057 25938066 26068073 26198078
               26328083 26538085 26668083 26788078 26888070