Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 837

   Mesoscale Discussion 0837
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0432 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

   Areas affected...South-central to southeast Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192132Z - 192330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms across south-central to southeast
   Iowa may pose a large hail and severe wind threat over the next
   couple of hours. This threat should remain sufficiently isolated to
   preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection across central IA has shown
   periodic signs of intensification to near severe levels based on IR
   cloud top temperatures and MRMS vertically integrated ICE products
   with a measured 61 mph gust noted at KPEA. This activity appears to
   largely be driven by a combination of weak ascent atop a diffuse
   stationary front and propagation along a buoyancy gradient draped
   from south-central to southeast IA. This boundary/gradient appears
   to be gradually spreading north/northeast over the past couple of
   hours, which should support storm propagation into southeast to
   perhaps eastern IA by early evening. Along with sporadic severe
   winds, large hail - most likely between 0.75 to 1.25 inches - may be
   a threat. It remains unclear how much additional convection will
   develop and become sustained within the frontal zone based on trends
   of trailing convection across central IA, but the general
   expectation is for a limited coverage of intense/severe storms.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 05/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41109272 41149295 41299308 41609312 41769299 42359099
               42139067 41869051 41609058 41389065 41259084 41149109
               41109272