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Mesoscale Discussion 837 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0837 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...South-central to southeast Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192132Z - 192330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms across south-central to southeast Iowa may pose a large hail and severe wind threat over the next couple of hours. This threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection across central IA has shown periodic signs of intensification to near severe levels based on IR cloud top temperatures and MRMS vertically integrated ICE products with a measured 61 mph gust noted at KPEA. This activity appears to largely be driven by a combination of weak ascent atop a diffuse stationary front and propagation along a buoyancy gradient draped from south-central to southeast IA. This boundary/gradient appears to be gradually spreading north/northeast over the past couple of hours, which should support storm propagation into southeast to perhaps eastern IA by early evening. Along with sporadic severe winds, large hail - most likely between 0.75 to 1.25 inches - may be a threat. It remains unclear how much additional convection will develop and become sustained within the frontal zone based on trends of trailing convection across central IA, but the general expectation is for a limited coverage of intense/severe storms. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 41109272 41149295 41299308 41609312 41769299 42359099 42139067 41869051 41609058 41389065 41259084 41149109 41109272 |
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