Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 833

   Mesoscale Discussion 0833
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southwestern into south central Oklahoma
   through central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230456Z - 230730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong lingering storms may be slow to undergo substantive
   further weakening, and could continue to pose a risk for localized
   strong to severe gusts and some hail through 1-3 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Near the leading edge of a broad and otherwise
   weakening eastward propagating, convectively generated surface cold
   pool, a narrow corridor of 2-4 mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises
   has developed as vigorous convective development persists.  This is
   being aided by continuing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer
   air characterized by sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, as lift
   remains sufficient to overcome increasing inhibition with surface
   cooling.

   How long this persists remains unclear.  Mid/upper support does not
   appear particularly strong, and vertical shear is generally weak, in
   the presence of 10-15 kt westerly deep-layer mean wind fields. 
   However, given the current strength of the ongoing convective
   development, and the potential instability present ahead of activity
   across and east of the I-35 corridor, storms may be slow to undergo
   substantive further weakening as it slowly develops eastward through
   06-08Z.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 05/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30869831 31569847 31689860 32589806 33389811 33909806
               34189847 34479870 34939854 35029781 34499666 31439710
               30869831 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN