Mesoscale Discussion 0832
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and
northwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 191829Z - 192030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest that storm initiation is
probable within the next couple of hours in southeast
Colorado/southwest Kansas. Development along the dryline farther
east is less certain, but possible. Very-large hail, widespread
severe wind gusts, and tornado or two are expected. A severe
thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus development has been steadily increasing along
the Raton Mesa over the past couple of hours. While initial towers
have not been sustained, the continued approach of a shortwave
perturbation --now in the Four Corners vicinity per water vapor
imagery--should aid in the deepening of these cumulus and eventually
storm initiation somewhere in southeast Colorado into far western
Kansas. Early convection will likely be present within a
dry/well-mixed environment and be capable of strong to marginally
severe wind gusts and perhaps hail. As this activity moves farther
into Kansas, dewpoints now in the low 60s F should support rapid
intensification. Effective shear 40-50 kts will promote supercells.
The longevity of supercells is a bit uncertain. Should storms
initiate on the dryline itself, they would be likely to remain
supercellular longer. Activity approaching from the southwest would
be more outflow dominant early in its life cycle, which could lead
to a shorter duration of discrete mode as it encounters greater
moisture. All that said, large to very large hail will be possible
with any supercell. The tornado threat is not as clear given
somewhat weak low-level winds that will increase after the storm
mode will likely be more linear. Supercells in this strongly buoyant
environment could still produce a tornado or two. With time, the
expectation is for some amount of upscale growth to occur with an
increase in severe wind gust potential. Some of these gusts could
reach 75-90 mph.
Farther south into northwest Oklahoma, timing of initiation is
likely to be later than farther north given less influence of the
shortwave and stronger capping. However, storms are more likely to
be discrete and surface winds into western Oklahoma may remain more
backed. In addition to the very-large hail and severe wind gust
threat, tornadoes would be more probable in this mesoscale corridor.
..Wendt/Hart.. 05/19/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 37100193 37750235 38490247 38780223 38830145 38700018
38589922 38309882 37579851 37089858 35519932 35509997
35650028 37100193