US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 832

   Mesoscale Discussion 0832
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0129 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and
   northwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 191829Z - 192030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest that storm initiation is
   probable within the next couple of hours in southeast
   Colorado/southwest Kansas. Development along the dryline farther
   east is less certain, but possible. Very-large hail, widespread
   severe wind gusts, and tornado or two are expected. A severe
   thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus development has been steadily increasing along
   the Raton Mesa over the past couple of hours. While initial towers
   have not been sustained, the continued approach of a shortwave
   perturbation --now in the Four Corners vicinity per water vapor
   imagery--should aid in the deepening of these cumulus and eventually
   storm initiation somewhere in southeast Colorado into far western
   Kansas. Early convection will likely be present within a
   dry/well-mixed environment and be capable of strong to marginally
   severe wind gusts and perhaps hail. As this activity moves farther
   into Kansas, dewpoints now in the low 60s F should support rapid
   intensification. Effective shear 40-50 kts will promote supercells.
   The longevity of supercells is a bit uncertain. Should storms
   initiate on the dryline itself, they would be likely to remain
   supercellular longer. Activity approaching from the southwest would
   be more outflow dominant early in its life cycle, which could lead
   to a shorter duration of discrete mode as it encounters greater
   moisture. All that said, large to very large hail will be possible
   with any supercell. The tornado threat is not as clear given
   somewhat weak low-level winds that will increase after the storm
   mode will likely be more linear. Supercells in this strongly buoyant
   environment could still produce a tornado or two. With time, the
   expectation is for some amount of upscale growth to occur with an
   increase in severe wind gust potential. Some of these gusts could
   reach 75-90 mph.

   Farther south into northwest Oklahoma, timing of initiation is
   likely to be later than farther north given less influence of the
   shortwave and stronger capping. However, storms are more likely to
   be discrete and surface winds into western Oklahoma may remain more
   backed. In addition to the very-large hail and severe wind gust
   threat, tornadoes would be more probable in this mesoscale corridor.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/19/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37100193 37750235 38490247 38780223 38830145 38700018
               38589922 38309882 37579851 37089858 35519932 35509997
               35650028 37100193 

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