Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 831

   Mesoscale Discussion 0831
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0109 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of the central/northern High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191809Z - 192015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing severe gusts and hail
   will be possible later this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of a modestly moist environment is
   underway across the central/northern High Plains vicinity, with
   recent attempts at high-based storm development already noted across
   the NE Panhandle. Continued heating will support MLCAPE rising to
   near/above 1000 J/kg across parts of the region later this
   afternoon, along with decreasing CINH. Scattered thunderstorm
   development is expected with time as a shortwave trough currently
   over the northern Rockies approaches the region. 

   Deep-layer shear will generally be supportive of organized
   convection, especially with northward extent across SD into far
   southern ND. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells
   with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. With time,
   consolidating outflows within a relatively warm and well-mixed
   environment could support some upscale growth and an increasing
   severe-wind threat. Watch issuance is likely for parts of this
   region later this afternoon.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41050399 42330388 44350340 45520223 46250124 46369999
               43870038 41100090 39670107 39640228 41050399