Mesoscale Discussion 0829
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024
Areas affected...Parts of southeast FL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 191617Z - 191815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe storms are possible this afternoon, with a
threat of hail and locally damaging wind.
DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing south of Melbourne early this
afternoon, in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front moving
toward south FL. The environment along/south of the front is quite
warm, moist, and unstable, with temperatures rising into the 90s F
and MLCAPE increasing to near/above 2500 J/kg. With some upper-level
support provided by a mid/upper-level trough over the Southeast, an
increase in storm coverage and intensity will be possible through
the afternoon, especially across southeast portions of the FL
Peninsula, where some influence of the Atlantic sea breeze may help
to focus storms later this afternoon.
Moderate midlevel flow depicted by the 12Z MFL and 15Z XMR soundings
will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization,
including the potential for a couple supercells. Favorable buoyancy
and some cooling aloft related to the upper trough will support a
hail threat with the strongest storms, along with some damaging wind
potential. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially with
any cell/boundary interactions near the coast.
While the primary threat area is relatively confined in area, watch
issuance remains possible this afternoon.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 27568139 27768047 27057999 26247983 25737997 25668016
25758056 26018070 26778096 27568139