US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 829

   Mesoscale Discussion 0829
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1117 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191617Z - 191815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms are possible this afternoon, with a
   threat of hail and locally damaging wind.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing south of Melbourne early this
   afternoon, in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front moving
   toward south FL. The environment along/south of the front is quite
   warm, moist, and unstable, with temperatures rising into the 90s F
   and MLCAPE increasing to near/above 2500 J/kg. With some upper-level
   support provided by a mid/upper-level trough over the Southeast, an
   increase in storm coverage and intensity will be possible through
   the afternoon, especially across southeast portions of the FL
   Peninsula, where some influence of the Atlantic sea breeze may help
   to focus storms later this afternoon. 

   Moderate midlevel flow depicted by the 12Z MFL and 15Z XMR soundings
   will support sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization,
   including the potential for a couple supercells. Favorable buoyancy
   and some cooling aloft related to the upper trough will support a
   hail threat with the strongest storms, along with some damaging wind
   potential. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially with
   any cell/boundary interactions near the coast. 

   While the primary threat area is relatively confined in area, watch
   issuance remains possible this afternoon.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   27568139 27768047 27057999 26247983 25737997 25668016
               25758056 26018070 26778096 27568139 

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