Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 827

   Mesoscale Discussion 0827
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

   Areas affected...NC into northern SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182049Z - 182245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and hail are possible into early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of NC
   late this afternoon, near a weak cold front draped across northern
   NC, and also near a confluence zone farther south into
   central/eastern NC. Modest heating of a moist boundary layer has
   resulted in moderate destabilization south of the cold front, and a
   further increase in storm coverage and intensity is possible with
   time into early evening. This area is on the northern fringe of
   stronger deep-layer flow associated with a shortwave trough over the
   TN Valley vicinity, and some modest storm organization is possible. 

   Initial more discrete storms may be capable of producing isolated
   hail and damaging gusts. With time, some consolidation of storms
   will be possible along the southward-moving cold front. This may
   lead to some increase in damaging-wind potential, though there may
   also be a tendency for the front to undercut storms as outflow helps
   to accelerate it southward.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34978279 35118326 35428330 35568319 35698275 35858203
               36378099 36398094 36188010 35897930 35827851 35897813
               35937764 35947719 35667623 35237628 34987634 34607651
               34327717 34127794 34277914 34468018 34658121 34978279