Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 826

   Mesoscale Discussion 0826
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0303 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

   Areas affected...parts of central and northern Wisconsin into
   western Upper Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 182003Z - 182200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage over the next few hours,
   with areas of strong to locally damaging gusts and marginal hail.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating across the area has resulted in up to
   1000 J/kg MLCAPE as temperatures rise through the 80s F. A prominent
   cold front/wind shift is moving across western WI and into the
   western MI U.P. with signs of deepening convection within a
   pre-frontal warm conveyor. 

   Winds veering with height which may tend to favor cellular storm
   mode, with a broken line of storms possible along the front. This
   may favor hail initially. With time, outflows may consolidate, with
   perhaps linear segments along the front aiding wind potential.
   Midlevel wind speeds averaging near 40 kt along with the steep
   boundary layer lapse rates may tend to favor strong outflow
   production this afternoon into the early evening.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44628944 43748984 43489016 43409062 43539097 43969129
               44479133 45199120 46319098 46679078 47089043 47118994
               46988929 46228911 45538926 44628944