Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 825

   Mesoscale Discussion 0825
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

   Areas affected...the eastern FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181816Z - 182015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A very warm and moist airmass is in place across the FL
   Peninsula this afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid 90s
   F and dewpoints well into the 70s F. Recent objective mesoanalyses
   and the 15Z XMR sounding (modified for current surface conditions)
   indicate that MLCAPE has increased to near/above 2500 J/kg across
   most of the peninsula early this afternoon. Meanwhile, modest
   midlevel southwesterly flow is supporting effective shear of 30-40
   kt across the region, resulting in a conditionally favorable
   environment for somewhat organized convection. 

   Decreasing MLCINH could result in isolated storm initiation over a
   larger portion of the central/eastern peninsula, but the greatest
   storm coverage is expected to focus near the east coast sea breeze
   later this afternoon. A few stronger multicells and perhaps a couple
   of supercells will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and
   localized severe gusts. In addition, a brief tornado cannot be ruled
   out as cells interact with the sea breeze boundary.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...JAX...

   LAT...LON   25808046 27268063 28858168 29858226 30218171 30238121
               29508074 29108057 28698036 27608002 26267998 25748008
               25808046