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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 823

Mesoscale Discussion 823
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0823
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0909 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

   Areas affected...North FL into south GA and extreme southeast AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181409Z - 181615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind will spread eastward
   through the morning.

   DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing this morning from the
   north-central Gulf of Mexico into north FL, southeast AL, and south
   GA. Downstream of the ongoing convection, rich low-level moisture is
   supporting MLCAPE of greater than 1500 J/kg within a moderately
   sheared environment, but generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates (as
   noted on the 12Z TLH sounding) may tend to limit storm organization
   and intensity through the morning. There is some potential for one
   or more small bowing segments to evolve with time, which could pose
   a threat for locally damaging wind, especially if areas of somewhat
   stronger diurnal heating can evolve beneath the extensive cirrus
   plume, and if convection can avoid being undercut by increasingly
   extensive outflow.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30178627 31518487 31718375 32098232 32228163 32068102
               31638114 30898205 30078320 29658437 29548483 29708611

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