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Mesoscale Discussion 823 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0823 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0909 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Areas affected...North FL into south GA and extreme southeast AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181409Z - 181615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind will spread eastward through the morning. DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing this morning from the north-central Gulf of Mexico into north FL, southeast AL, and south GA. Downstream of the ongoing convection, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of greater than 1500 J/kg within a moderately sheared environment, but generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 12Z TLH sounding) may tend to limit storm organization and intensity through the morning. There is some potential for one or more small bowing segments to evolve with time, which could pose a threat for locally damaging wind, especially if areas of somewhat stronger diurnal heating can evolve beneath the extensive cirrus plume, and if convection can avoid being undercut by increasingly extensive outflow. ..Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 30178627 31518487 31718375 32098232 32228163 32068102 31638114 30898205 30078320 29658437 29548483 29708611 30178627 |
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