Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 818

   Mesoscale Discussion 0818
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0617 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

   Areas affected...The Florida Peninsula into northern florida and
   southeast Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 172317Z - 180045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for a potential watch extension
   of watch 254 or a new watch.

   DISCUSSION...The cluster of storms near the Alabama/Florida border
   has now mostly weakened with one primary large supercell on the
   leading edge the only remaining threat. However, the environment
   ahead of this supercell has continued to destabilize and recently
   the storm has started to turn southeast. The 2230Z WoFS has the
   greatest 0-2km UH probabilities into Gadsden county later this
   evening. Therefore, if it appears the storm will maintain intensity
   south of the current watch area, an areal extension of the watch may
   be needed. In addition, there has been some intensification to the
   storms moving across central Georgia as low-level moisture increases
   ahead of the storms. This may maintain some severe weather threat to
   the Atlantic coast which could necessitate a new tornado watch. If
   this appears likely, a new watch may need to be issued. Storm trends
   will be monitored and watch/extension decisions will be made
   shortly.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30338573 30718494 30718410 30778368 31168309 31458272
               31398174 31098139 30618182 30148341 30108397 30038433
               29928484 30058528 30338573