Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 814

   Mesoscale Discussion 0814
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Montana into western North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 171902Z - 172100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will initially pose a threat of strong/severe wind
   gusts. Storms will intensify as they move east into greater
   moisture. Large hail will be possible as this occurs. A severe
   thunderstorm watch is possible for parts of eastern Montana into
   western/central North Dakota this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A compact upper-level tough is moving through the
   northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated with this feature
   is evident in thunderstorm development near and northeast of the Big
   Horns. Additional cumulus development is also occurring farther east
   within a surface trough in western North Dakota. Storms that form
   farther west near the synoptic cold front will exist in a fairly
   well-mixed, low dewpoint environment. The strongest storms will be
   capable of strong to marginally severe wind gusts. With time storms
   will move into greater moisture in western/central North Dakota. As
   this occurs, storm intensity should increase. Strong to severe gusts
   will still remain possible, but greater moisture and a long,
   straight hodograph should also promote some threat of marginally
   severe hail (1-1.5 in.).

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   45120384 44970485 45030668 45420686 45950652 46360558
               47160456 48260349 48890298 48850103 47890082 46930091
               45200337 45120384