Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 810

   Mesoscale Discussion 0810
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0642 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

   Areas affected...Texas Big Bend into Pecos Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237...

   Valid 202342Z - 210130Z

   CORRECTED WORDING IN LAST SENTENCE OF TEXT

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A small cluster of storms continues to pose some risk for
   severe hail and wind, but this potential probably will diminish
   while spreading toward the San Angelo vicinity through 8-9 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Strongest storms have been maintained on the
   northeastern flank of convective outflow slowly propagating off the
   higher terrain, in the presence of strongly sheared (due to veering
   of winds with height) but weak southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on
   the order of 15-20 kt.  This is where northeasterly surface winds to
   the cool side of a weakening surface front may be enhancing
   convergence along the outflow, and low-level warm advection above
   the front may be still maximized.  However, latest guidance suggests
   that this forcing may begin to weaken within the next couple of
   hours, resulting in diminishing convective intensities, if an influx
   of less unstable updraft inflow does not weaken convection sooner.

   ..Kerr.. 05/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30620214 31030196 31090081 30320167 30030245 30620214 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN