Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 810

   Mesoscale Discussion 0810
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1009 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

   Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 251...

   Valid 170309Z - 170515Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 251 continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat continues with surging squall line.
   Some tornado risk also exists along this line.

   DISCUSSION...Long-lived MCS continues its forward propagation across
   southern LA within a strong low-level warm advection regime. LLJ has
   increased markedly this evening ahead of the surging bow, and 0-3km
   SRH, just downstream at HDC, is in excess of 600 m2/s2. This complex
   is expected to progress along the northern instability gradient,
   across the remainder of southeast LA with an attendant damaging wind
   threat. While the primary storm mode will remain an MCS, embedded
   circulations along the surging bow pose some risk for tornadoes.

   ..Darrow.. 05/17/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   31209197 30268882 28408882 29329197 31209197