Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 805

   Mesoscale Discussion 0805
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0455 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

   Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into West Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250...

   Valid 162155Z - 162330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for primarily large hail to continue into the
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have formed atop the
   outflow/composite front across eastern New Mexico/West Texas. These
   storms have shown some supercell structures but have not been overly
   organized or robust thus far. This is likely due to only moderate
   MUCAPE (1000 to 1500 J/kg) and deep-layer shear. While fixed-layer
   0-6 shear would appear favorable, the inflow base on these storms is
   likely around 2km. 2-8km shear is only around 25 to 30 knots (per
   MAF VWP). This likely explains some of the somewhat sporadically
   organized nature of the convection. The storms farther south and
   east, closer to the better elevated instability (and 30-35 knots of
   effective shear per SJT VWP), are more robust and will likely pose
   the greatest large and potentially very large hail through the
   evening.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31390380 32680360 33250285 32990048 31610036 30920145
               31030230 31390380