Mesoscale Discussion 0798 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246...247... Valid 160109Z - 160245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246, 247 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 246-247. Severe gusts remain the primary threat with merging multicells, with large hail continuing with the more discrete, persistent supercells. DISCUSSION...Cluster of merging multicells and their cold pools is underway across northern portions of the TX Panhandle, which have a history of producing occasional instances of severe hail and wind (with a couple of gusts exceeding 65 kts). Similarly, convective outflow over the southern TX Panhandle continues to support severe gusts as well (per latest observations). Finally, supercells persist along the KS/OK border area, with a dominant right-moving supercell having recently produced measured 4 inch diameter hail. These storms continue to benefit from amply buoyancy residing atop a deep boundary layer (per the 00Z OUN observed sounding, which shows steep tropospheric lapse rates remain in place). Latest Warn-on-Forecast guidance suggests that storms across the northern TX Panhandle will continue to track northeastward, perhaps with a focused corridor of severe gusts. Guidance also suggests supercells along the KS/OK border should persist with a severe hail/gust threat for at least a few more hours. Finally, some of the latest runs of the Warn-on_Forecast ensemble guidance depict an appreciable severe wind swath approaching the Rolling Plains in TX. While severe gusts are being produced rapidly propagating eastward outflow, the severe threat is conditional upon the development of newer, robust thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33570253 36520135 37899858 37879624 37229597 36619646 35239880 34440019 33390100 33570253