Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 792

   Mesoscale Discussion 0792
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the northern/central FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244...

   Valid 151715Z - 151845Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds
   continues this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...The strongest convection so far this afternoon across
   the central FL Peninsula has been near and north of Lake Okeechobee.
   An outflow boundary from prior convection is present across this
   area, with moderate to locally strong instability (2000-3000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE) present along and south of it per latest mesoanalysis
   estimates. Weak west-southwesterly low-level winds gradually
   strengthen with height through mid/upper levels based on recent VWPs
   from KTBW/KMLB. Around 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear should continue
   to support thunderstorm organization through the rest of the
   afternoon. Although convective mode has become a bit messy with
   multiple mergers/interactions, any semi-discrete supercells could
   still pose a threat for isolated severe hail given the presence of
   steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong to locally damaging winds will
   also remain a concern as filtered daytime heating aids in gradual
   steepening of low-level lapse rates. Across the northern FL
   Peninsula, the airmass is slightly less unstable. But, an isolated
   severe hail/wind threat may still exist downstream of ongoing
   convection.

   ..Gleason.. 05/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29358300 29638288 30068191 29668106 28038032 27258017
               27028123 27248267 27868288 28608285 29358300