Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 79

   Mesoscale Discussion 0079
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0623 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the Middle and Upper Texas Coast

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...

   Valid 150023Z - 150230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes will
   continue eastward to the coast during the next few hours -- within
   Tornado Watch #5.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KHGX depicts an organized
   squall line moving eastward along a surface cold front at around
   35-40 kt toward the Middle and Upper TX Coast. Ahead of the line,
   the HGX VWP is sampling a 40 kt low-level jet, which is contributing
   to large clockwise hodograph curvature (250-300 m2/s2 effective
   SRH). While the frontal forcing and 50-60 kt of line-parallel
   effective shear is promoting a continued linear mode (with a
   severe-wind risk), the ample streamwise vorticity and upper 60s to
   near 70 boundary-layer dewpoints is also favoring embedded
   circulations/supercell structures and a tornado risk. The risk of
   severe wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado or two will continue
   to the coast during the next few hours -- within Tornado Watch #5.

   ..Weinman.. 02/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29359614 29969556 30569492 30729444 30679405 30369381
               29949385 29609409 28729545 28609594 28929622 29359614 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN