Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 789

   Mesoscale Discussion 0789
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191923Z - 192030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convective development across portions of southern New
   England is occurring amidst hot, dry, and well-mixed boundary layer
   profiles. While uncertainty in convective coverage exists, any
   storms that develop will be capable of damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Radar trends have shown continued convective
   development across portions of southern New England as surface
   temperatures have risen as high as the mid-90s F. Proximity RAP
   soundings show deeply-mixed and dry boundary layer profiles, and
   current mesoanalysis has widespread 9 C/km lapse rates colocated
   with 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30 kts of deep-layer shear. There is
   some uncertainty in storm coverage, as there have yet to be any
   lightning detections with this convective activity -- likely due to
   dry-air entrainment. Still, there is enough shear within the
   environment to support some convective organization, especially with
   any stronger/more robust updrafts, that would point towards a
   potential damaging wind threat this afternoon.

   ..Halbert/Hart.. 05/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42087494 42767424 42817364 42927279 42757188 42517108
               42147094 41807119 41697190 41627279 41677351 41737450
               41877500 42087494 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH