Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 789

   Mesoscale Discussion 0789
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of north/central FL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 243...

   Valid 150858Z - 151030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 243 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for a couple tornadoes and isolated severe
   hail/wind will continue through the early morning.

   DISCUSSION...A band of convection along a weak surface boundary has
   evolved into multiple supercells across north-central FL early this
   morning, with a few persistent mesocyclones observed in radar data.
   Favorable moisture and buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg) and
   sufficient low-level shear/SRH (as noted on the KTBW VWP) will
   continue to support some tornado threat with any persistent
   supercell, in addition to the threat for isolated hail and damaging
   wind.  

   With a persistent cumulus field extending southwestward from the
   ongoing band of convection toward the Gulf Coast north of Tampa Bay,
   occasional supercell redevelopment appears possible through the
   early morning. Storm coverage across southern and western portions
   of WW 243 may tend to increase with time, accompanied by an
   increasing severe threat across this area.

   ..Dean.. 05/15/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28688269 29038268 29818096 29238036 28598073 27968179
               27758246 27848278 28218277 28428269 28688269