US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 787

   Mesoscale Discussion 0787
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0526 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

   Areas affected...portions of western Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142226Z - 150000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of isolated severe gusts and an instance of
   marginally severe hail may accompany any storms that can develop and
   mature. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance
   is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are attempting to initiate
   across portions of western TX ahead of a diffuse dryline, amid a
   synoptic environment characterized by weak forcing. Surface
   temperatures are reaching the mid 90s F in spots, which is breaching
   convective temperatures amid a deep (sfc-600 mb), uncapped boundary
   layer. Forecast soundings suggest modestly curved and elongated
   hodographs may support a transient, high-based supercell for any
   updraft that can intensify and become established. Within the deep
   boundary layer, lapse rates exceed 9 C/km, suggesting that isolated
   instances of severe gusts and perhaps hail may occur with any
   supercell structure given the aforementioned shear profiles.
   Nonetheless, the severe threat should be isolated at best, so a WW
   issuance is not currently anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31539905 31209922 31050042 31020149 32630218 34430252
               35120231 34910127 33840031 32409936 31539905 

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