Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 786

   Mesoscale Discussion 0786
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0524 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

   Areas affected...TN Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242...

   Valid 142224Z - 150000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Gusty winds, along with some risk for marginally severe
   hail, will continue along the leading edge of the MCS as it
   propagates east this evening.

   DISCUSSION...MS Valley trough is advancing slowly east this evening
   as primary belt of stronger mid-level flow translates across the
   central Gulf States. Mid-level temperatures are seasonally cool
   north of this jet with 500mb values around -12C across the TN
   Valley. As a result, modest buoyancy has developed ahead of the
   trough with MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg into middle TN. While
   much of this air mass has been convectively overturned, the ongoing
   MCS is progressing through the main instability axis and will soon
   begin to encounter less buoyancy. Damaging winds will likely
   accompany the leading edge of the surging squall line for the next
   few hours, but with time this activity should gradually wane over
   eastern TN.

   ..Darrow.. 05/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34388918 36488827 36478595 34388690 34388918