Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 783

   Mesoscale Discussion 0783
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of coastal/eastern SC into
   coastal/southern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142048Z - 142245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado
   may occur with thunderstorms moving northeastward this afternoon and
   early evening. Watch issuance is not expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...An MCV related to convection that occurred earlier
   today across the Southeast remains evident over central NC and
   vicinity this afternoon. Although cloud cover has remained prevalent
   across coastal NC/SC today, modest daytime heating of a moist
   low-level airmass has occurred. Corresponding weak instability
   (MLCAPE generally 250-750 J/kg) may be sufficient to support
   surface-based convection through the rest of the afternoon and into
   the early evening along/near the NC/SC Coast. Latest VWP from KLTX
   shows a veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid
   levels, associated with the MCV. Even though there appears to be
   some weakness in the flow in the 1-2 km AGL layer, around 100-200
   m2/s2 of effective SRH may still support low-level updraft rotation
   and the threat for a brief tornado with any cell that can
   strengthen. Isolated strong/gusty winds may also occur. The overall
   severe threat is expected to remain marginal/isolated due to the
   limited instability, and watch issuance is not expected at this
   time.

   ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33417920 34017987 34707968 35057883 34927793 34457739
               33807788 33557854 33417920