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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 769

Mesoscale Discussion 769
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0769
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0304 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the central and northern Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132004Z - 132130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
   through this afternoon along a seabreeze and stationary boundary.
   Strong to severe wind gusts near 50 to 60 mph and perhaps a
   landspout are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows deepening
   cumulus developing along a seabreeze and stationary boundary. The
   latter is further north and draped west to east between Alachua and
   Columbia Counties. A few thunderstorms have already developed near
   these features as well, and additional diurnal development is
   expected. Although deep layer effective shear suggests some updraft
   organization may occur, poor mid level lapse rates will keep any
   marginally severe hail threat isolated. On the other hand, steep low
   level lapse rates/stretching potential and somewhat greater low
   level shear over the northern Florida peninsula closer to the
   stationary boundary may be sufficient for a brief landspout to occur
   with robust updrafts that manage to develop. Localized strong to
   severe wind gusts will also be possible with wet microbursts and
   merging cells. Given the isolated threat of the severe potential, a
   weather watch is not expected at this time.

   ..Barnes/Gleason.. 05/13/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   28648254 28878255 29288283 29798329 30098321 30248305
               30238264 29888199 29728172 29368148 29078117 27518057
               27408116 27238126 26828124 26788160 27208183 28008209

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