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Mesoscale Discussion 769 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0769 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the central and northern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132004Z - 132130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through this afternoon along a seabreeze and stationary boundary. Strong to severe wind gusts near 50 to 60 mph and perhaps a landspout are possible. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus developing along a seabreeze and stationary boundary. The latter is further north and draped west to east between Alachua and Columbia Counties. A few thunderstorms have already developed near these features as well, and additional diurnal development is expected. Although deep layer effective shear suggests some updraft organization may occur, poor mid level lapse rates will keep any marginally severe hail threat isolated. On the other hand, steep low level lapse rates/stretching potential and somewhat greater low level shear over the northern Florida peninsula closer to the stationary boundary may be sufficient for a brief landspout to occur with robust updrafts that manage to develop. Localized strong to severe wind gusts will also be possible with wet microbursts and merging cells. Given the isolated threat of the severe potential, a weather watch is not expected at this time. ..Barnes/Gleason.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 28648254 28878255 29288283 29798329 30098321 30248305 30238264 29888199 29728172 29368148 29078117 27518057 27408116 27238126 26828124 26788160 27208183 28008209 28648254 |
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