Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 768

   Mesoscale Discussion 0768
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the Florida panhandle and northern
   Florida

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 236...

   Valid 131859Z - 132030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 236 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds near 60 to 70 mph and a
   couple of tornadoes will continue across northern Florida through
   this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A bowing line segment over northern Gulf County and and
   far southern Calhoun County previously showed signs of mesovortices
   trying to develop as it progressed east southeastward. The TLH VAD
   profile indicates low level shear upstream of this segment should
   continue to support the potential for such vortices. Recent radar
   trends, however, suggest the aforementioned feature is struggling to
   maintain itself considering upstream moist convection and decreasing
   surface based instability. Nonetheless, low level moisture advection
   along and south of the stationary boundary will keep LCLs relatively
   low. In addition, a few thunderstorms are beginning to develop along
   the stationary boundary within the eastern extreme of the watch
   where increased insolation is present. A couple of tornadoes remain
   possible within this environment, and wind gusts near 60 to 70 mph
   may accompany clusters or line segments.

   ..Barnes/Gleason.. 05/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29738539 30098540 30268522 30648473 30708440 30618326
               30438320 30278321 30148314 30028300 29878289 29678293
               29548297 29368306 29308315 29398338 29738539