Mesoscale Discussion 0765 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Areas affected...Parts of northwestern Missouri into central Iowa and far southern Minnesota Concerning...Tornado Watch 216...218... Valid 180230Z - 180400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 216, 218 continues. SUMMARY...Severe gusts and brief line-embedded tornadoes will remain a concern with an elongated QLCS for at least the next few hours. A couple of gusts may exceed 75 mph. DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS, with multiple embedded bowing segments, continues across northwestern MO into central IA and southern MN. Embedded bowing segments have a history of severe gusts in the 60-75 mph range, as well as reported brief tornadoes along the leading line. While nocturnal cooling/stabilization has begun, surface temperatures remain in the upper 70s to near 80F across the warm sector, particularly over central IA. Given upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints, boundary layer stabilization will be gradual, so the severe gust/QLCS tornado threat should persist for at least a few more hours. The relatively greatest threat for severe gusts and QLCS tornadoes remains with a prominent bowing segment in northern IA to MN, in close proximity to the warm front. However, severe gusts and perhaps a QLCS tornado may also occur with smaller surges in the broadened elongated QLCS across central and southern IA. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39899483 40109602 40549597 41329543 42329476 43349439 44049367 44129341 44199309 43889272 43449252 42419258 41459274 40449314 40029423 39899483 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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