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| Mesoscale Discussion 765 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0765 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...Portions of far southern AL into the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234... Valid 131528Z - 131630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for mainly severe/damaging winds should persist beyond the scheduled 16Z expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234. A new watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...A small bowing cluster with a history of producing severe winds up to 54 kt is ongoing across parts of far southern/coastal AL into the western FL Panhandle. Latest surface observations show boundary extends eastward from this cluster very near/along the FL Panhandle Coast. A moist low-level airmass is present along/south of this boundary, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Even modest/filtered heating of his moist airmass will support at least weak boundary-layer destabilization, with MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalysis estimates. VWPs from KEVX/KTLH show a veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid/upper levels. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will support continued organization of the ongoing cluster in the short term, with severe/damaging winds remaining the primary threat as convection spreads eastward across much of the FL Panhandle through this afternoon. But, some concern also exists regarding embedded/QLCS tornado potential, as 0-1 km shear is sufficient for low-level updraft rotation. With WW 234 scheduled to expire at 16Z, and the threat likely to continue this afternoon, a new watch is likely. ..Gleason.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30508777 31148704 30688486 30358346 29958314 29418329 29558509 30038631 29988761 30508777 |
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