Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 757

   Mesoscale Discussion 0757
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1251 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of Central into East Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232...

   Valid 121751Z - 121915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Additional storms may develop in central Texas near the
   warm front. Storms will likely be slightly elevated and pose
   primarily a risk of large hail. Storm coverage remains a bit
   uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows cumulus deepening along the
   warm frontal boundary in central Texas. Though the warm front has
   been reinforced by earlier convective outflow, the front may
   preferentially lift north in this location given that the bulk of
   convection is now farther east. Additional storm development seems
   most likely to occur within southwestern portions of WW 232 this
   afternoon. However, forecast soundings do suggest there may be some
   subsidence behind the earlier convection which creates some
   uncertainty as to storm coverage. Should storms develop, large hail
   will be the primary hazard. Any increase in tornado risk will be
   conditional on the warm front lifting northward and sufficient
   low-level jet strength remaining (as the core is forecast to move
   east with time).

   ..Wendt.. 05/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30719478 30499490 30409512 29949545 29889553 29609597
               29749678 30199752 30959786 31389767 31619720 31879537
               31599475 31209466 30719478