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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 756

Mesoscale Discussion 756
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0756
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1049 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of East Texas and Upper Texas Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232...

   Valid 121549Z - 121745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232

   SUMMARY...Large hail up to 2 inches remains possible with the
   strongest storms in WW 232. Additional storms may develop south of
   the watch and would pose a greater tornado threat as they are near
   the surface warm front.

   DISCUSSION...The potential for large hail will continue in WW 232,
   particularly in northern portions of the watch where two ongoing
   supercell structures exist. The storm currently north of College
   Station has produced 2 inch hail in the last 90 minutes. As the warm
   front continues to lift slowly northward, convection has begun to
   develop near Houston. This convection has so far remained weak, but
   has shown some marginal supercell characteristics in the last 30
   minutes. There is some potential for these storms to mature, though
   timing remains uncertain. Given their proximity to the warm front,
   they have a greater probability to be or soon be surface based. That
   said, tornado potential would be greater than storms farther north.
   Convective trends will need to be monitored in the next few hours.
   Either local expansion of WW 232 or perhaps a new watch may become
   necessary depending on convective evolution and the primary expected

   ..Wendt.. 05/12/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29619655 29979652 30209653 30889666 31189656 31329625
               31459507 31469448 31339435 30689432 29959417 29739416
               29529471 29309584 29369636 29619655 

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