Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 753

   Mesoscale Discussion 0753
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

   Areas affected...portions of far northern North Dakota into far
   northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112156Z - 120030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts could occur with the stronger
   storm cores. The overall severe threat should remain isolated
   though, and a WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...High-based/low-topped convection continues to meander
   along the International border, and is poised to overspread portions
   of far northern ND and MN over the next few hours. Very steep
   tropospheric lapse rates precede these storms, which support
   adequate evaporative cooling and associated downward momentum
   transport. As such, the stronger shower/thunderstorm cores could
   produce a few damaging gusts (including those approaching severe
   thresholds), even if only virga is present. Still, the overall
   severe threat should be isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not
   anticipated.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/11/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47419497 47229698 47580003 47630050 48080211 48920360
               49339712 48969445 48529422 47989470 47419497