Mesoscale Discussion 0738 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Texas into western and northern Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222...224... Valid 100103Z - 100230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222, 224 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 222 and 224. Severe winds and hail remain the primary threats. Conditions are being monitored for upscale growth into a bow echo and accompanying risk of a greater damaging wind threat. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells with a history of producing severe hail (up to 4 inches in some cases) and isolated damaging gusts continue to progress southeast over central TX. These storms are impinging on a zonal baroclinic boundary, where additional storms have recently initiated. Given 4500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear in place, any supercells that remain discrete will continue to pose a damaging gust and large hail risk, including stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Of greater concern is the possibility of upscale growth into an organized bow-echo MCS, which could produce an appreciable swath of severe gusts (including those exceeding 75 mph) upon development. However, intense bow-echo development is conditional upon efficient cold pool mergers and the progressive cold pool boundary (convective leading line) becoming oriented roughly normal to the deep-layer shear vector. The latest high resolution model guidance, including the last few runs of the HRRR and Warn-on-Forecast ensemble output, lean against this scenario. Nonetheless, should storms remain more discrete, high-resolution guidance still suggests that at least some severe wind potential will continue into the evening hours, and a couple of 75+ mph gusts could still occur. ..Squitieri.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30229880 31099820 32219481 32539331 32639179 32459177 31799237 31039389 30569496 30089656 29869771 30229880