Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 736

   Mesoscale Discussion 0736
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0236 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...northwest Kansas and southwest
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161936Z - 162100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The early stages of thunderstorm development are underway,
   with an increasing threat for large hail and severe outflow gusts
   into this evening.  A severe thunderstorm watch is likely by about
   21z.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is deepening over the Palmer Divide per 1-km
   visible satellite imagery as of 20z.  Downstream from this
   convection, persistent upslope flow (north of the lee cyclone in
   southeast CO) is advecting low-level moisture westward as surface
   temperatures warm into the low-mid 80s.  The storm environment will
   favor initial/high-based supercells capable of producing large hail
   and severe outflow gusts, and the supercell threat is most likely to
   persist along the southern flank of the convection.  An eventual
   increase in storm coverage/intensity is expected as the storms 
   encounter increasing buoyancy with eastward extent, and as
   hodographs lengthen with increasing low-level curvature (which could
   become sufficient for an isolated tornado or two).  Thus, a severe
   thunderstorm watch will be likely by about 21z.

   ..Thompson/Mosier.. 05/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39250079 39070133 38930220 38920293 39100361 39430371
               40330309 40870222 40980159 40960101 40510071 39830059
               39250079 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN