Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 732

   Mesoscale Discussion 0732
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

   Areas affected...From far northeast Texas across southern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 092026Z - 092300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of large hail are expected to move east
   across the ArkLaTex and into much of southern Arkansas through
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows an extensive stationary front
   across northern TX and into southern AR and toward the MS/TN border.
   South of this boundary, a very moist and unstable air mass exists
   with MLCAPE exceeding 4000 J/kg. While low-level winds are weak,
   moderate mid to high levels winds will help move storms eastward
   along and north of the boundary, with deep layer shear of 60-70 kt
   Forward-propagating cells or eventual bows will be possible, and the
   strongest cells may produce very large damaging hail.

   ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34439590 34549124 34289117 33899115 33499190 33169244
               32919314 32879576 33599586 34199587 34439590