Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 729

   Mesoscale Discussion 0729
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024

   Areas affected...much of northwest into northern Texas and toward
   the Red River

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 091657Z - 091930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage through the
   afternoon, with very large hail possible from northwest into
   northern Texas. Damaging winds will also be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front extending
   from near Shreveport LA westward across the Metroplex and toward a
   weak surface low near San Angelo, TX. The air mass is very moist and
   unstable across the entire region, as can be seen from the 12Z FWD
   sounding where elevated MUCAPE north of the boundary is around 4000
   J/kg with steep midlevel lapse rates.

   Further indicative of the quality of the elevated instability north
   of the front are robust cells already forming over Young and Archer
   Counties, which are situated atop relatively cool/dry surface
   northeasterlies. Deep-layer shear may be effectively augmented for
   cells moving eastward along the boundary later today as the air mass
   along it heats, and around with 60 kt shear. Severe cells are also
   expected to form near the weak surface low or close to the
   dryline/stationary front intersection, with both very large hail and
   damaging winds as storms increase in coverage.

   ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32829971 33919838 34049730 33989676 33669652 33129647
               31819694 31429746 31329796 31189874 31159934 31140004
               31390029 31830036 32260018 32829971