Mesoscale Discussion 0729
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Areas affected...portions of southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern
Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 160005Z - 160100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may occur with an approaching line of
storms over the next few hours, before stabilization limits
thunderstorm intensity.
DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms, with a history of producing
severe gusts and blowing dust with zero visibility, have recently
organized into an MCS across the TX Rolling Plains into southwestern
OK. Preceding this line of storms, a well-mixed boundary layer
remains in place, with 30+ F T/Td spreads contributing to well over
1500 J/kg DCAPE. Given an intensifying LLJ atop the well-mixed
boundary layer, and ample remaining evaporative cooling potential,
an organized cluster of severe gusts is not out of the question.
Should storms continue to intensify within the aforementioned MCS, a
WW issuance may be needed.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/16/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32620005 33649977 34399963 34739916 34779858 34649822
34349801 33699812 33069849 32659880 32459907 32419955
32620005
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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