Mesoscale Discussion 0728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026
Areas affected...portions of western into central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 152321Z - 160015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Severe gusts may occur with the stronger storms that
manage to intensify and sustain themselves. A WW issuance may be
necessary if larger scale storm organization is realized.
DISCUSSION...Low-topped, high-based convection continues to
gradually deepen across western OK, where a 50+ kt convective gust
has been reported, in addition to lightning flashes (per the latest
NLDN lightning data). These storms are developing near the dryline,
where surface dewpoint are in the upper 40s to low 50s F. However,
within 50 statute miles downstream of this low-topped convection,
surface dewpoints increase markedly into the low 60s F, yielding
over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Nonetheless, current mesoanalysis depicts
substantial MLCINH also in place. Trends in convective coverage and
intensity thus remain uncertain. If an appreciable uptick in
convective intensity does materialize, a WW issuance may be needed
to account for the possibility of an organized severe gust threat.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/15/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
LAT...LON 35279993 36009981 36559932 36749878 36699825 36319787
35499782 34979795 34709827 34589867 34569927 34629965
34739988 35279993
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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