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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 719

Mesoscale Discussion 719
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0719
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0930 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Areas affected...ArkLaTex Vicinity

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 208...210...

   Valid 090230Z - 090430Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 208, 210 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of large/very-large hail, isolated severe gusts,
   and a tornado or two could persist beyond 03Z. Watch extensions
   could be needed for southeast Arkansas into northwest Louisiana.

   DISCUSSION...Two supercells continue east-southeastward in northeast
   Texas. They have both shown some oscillations in intensity  and
   organization over the past hour or so. The environment remains
   strongly buoyant ahead of them with 40-50 kts of effective shear.
   Large to possibly very large hail still may occur as could isolated
   severe gusts. The tornado risk is less certain, though a modest
   increase in low-level helicity is evident downstream on objective
   mesoanalysis. Based on current projections, these storms will
   probably effect portions of northwest Louisiana and southeast
   Arkansas beyond the 03Z time frame when WW 208 and WW 210 are set to
   expire. Some local extensions in time/area may be needed to account
   for this possibility.

   ..Wendt.. 05/09/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32539620 32769660 32879654 33079625 34089490 33479325
               32859306 32099447 32429582 32539620 

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