Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 718

   Mesoscale Discussion 0718
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Areas affected...North Texas into southeast Oklahoma and northwest
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 208...210...

   Valid 090059Z - 090300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 208, 210 continues.

   SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail and severe wind gusts should
   remain the greatest threat this evening. Discrete storms moving into
   the low-level jet axis in Arkansas would pose the greatest tornado
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...Large to very-large hail will remain possible,
   especially with discrete storms near the Red River. Storms in
   northwest Arkansas/northeast Oklahoma have already become more
   linear and likely to remain so. A modest increase in the low-level
   jet is expected over the 1-3 hours in Arkansas. Discrete storms that
   move into Arkansas could pose a greater tornado threat as a result.
   There is some inhibition farther east as observed by the 00Z LZK
   sounding. Any increase in CIN this evening should be slow given the
   moist low-level environment. Particularly if storms congeal, the
   cold pool in combination with the low-level jet could sustain
   convection farther east than expected.

   Other than currently weak convection in Lampasas County, prospects
   for additional development south of the DFW metro are not certain.
   Visible satellite has shown downward trends in cumulus over the last
   few hours.

   ..Wendt.. 05/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32779698 32979684 33319651 33669617 34559568 35499507
               36059466 36429400 36459347 36429318 36159308 35169368
               33289487 32729550 32509637 32509679 32779698